BizarroMath™ Sports Analysis System |
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The Numbers |
Last Updated: 02:00 on Sunday, October 13, 2024
Toledo 2024 Season Summary
National Average Data
| Category
| 2023 Raw
| 2024 Raw
| 2024 Blended (Δ)
|
| Points Per Game (PPG) |
26.70 |
26.64 |
26.66 (+0.02) |
| Yards Per Game (YPG) |
379.93 |
374.92 |
376.36 (+1.44) |
| Yards Per Play (YPP) |
5.70 |
5.77 |
5.75 (-0.02) |
Toledo 2024 - Unit Statistics
Offense
| Category
| 2023 Raw
| 2023 Opp Adj'd (Δ)
| 2024 Raw
| 2024 Opp Adj'd (Δ)
| 2024 Blended (Δ)
|
|---|
| Points Scored per Game (PPG): |
30.50 |
32.14 (+1.64) |
29.00 |
32.18 (+3.18) |
32.17 (-0.02) |
| Yards Gained per Game (YPG): |
406.08 |
377.40 (-28.69) |
367.60 |
298.97 (-68.63) |
328.38 (+29.41) |
| Yards Gained per Play (YPP): |
6.67 |
6.20 (-0.46) |
5.45 |
4.60 (-0.85) |
5.20 (+0.60) |
Defense
| Category
| 2023 Raw
| 2023 Opp Adj'd (Δ)
| 2024 Raw
| 2024 Opp Adj'd (Δ)
| 2024 Blended (Δ)
|
|---|
| Points Yielded per Game (PPG): |
22.08 |
28.04 (+5.96) |
23.20 |
33.00 (+9.80) |
31.14 (-1.86) |
| Yards Yielded per Game (YPG): |
325.17 |
406.98 (+81.81) |
345.60 |
392.03 (+46.43) |
397.63 (+5.61) |
| Yards Yielded per Play (YPP): |
5.09 |
5.80 (+0.71) |
5.12 |
5.84 (+0.72) |
5.82 (-0.02) |
Intangibles
| Category
| Measure(s)
|
| Home Field Advantage
| +2.7 |
Schedule Analysis
| Date
| Opponent
| BizMa Points For
| BizMa Points Against
| BizMa Spread
| BizMa O/U
| BizMa Win %
| Real Outcome
| Team Record
|
| 2024-08-29 |
Duquesne |
Non-FBS Opponent |
W 49-10 |
1-0 |
| 2024-09-07 |
Massachusetts |
46.81 |
17.83 |
-28.98 |
64.63 |
96.48% |
W 38-23 |
2-0 |
| 2024-09-14 |
@Mississippi State |
35.56 |
36.65 |
+1.09 |
72.21 |
48.25% |
W 41-17 |
3-0 |
| 2024-09-21 |
@Western Kentucky |
36.95 |
32.60 |
-4.34 |
69.55 |
56.97% |
L 21-26 |
3-1 |
| 2024-10-05 |
Miami (OH) |
31.25 |
21.79 |
-9.46 |
53.04 |
65.18% |
W 30-20 |
4-1 |
| 2024-10-12 |
@Buffalo |
34.24 |
22.52 |
-11.72 |
56.75 |
68.79% |
L 15-30 |
4-2 |
| 2024-10-19 |
@Northern Illinois |
29.03 |
24.63 |
-4.39 |
53.66 |
57.05% |
n/a |
n/a |
| 2024-10-26 |
Bowling Green |
36.22 |
27.81 |
-8.41 |
64.03 |
63.49% |
n/a |
n/a |
| 2024-11-02 |
@Eastern Michigan |
44.17 |
28.14 |
-16.03 |
72.31 |
75.71% |
n/a |
n/a |
| 2024-11-12 |
Central Michigan |
46.87 |
20.67 |
-26.20 |
67.54 |
92.02% |
n/a |
n/a |
| 2024-11-21 |
Ohio |
35.11 |
21.81 |
-13.30 |
56.92 |
71.33% |
n/a |
n/a |
| 2024-11-27 |
@Akron |
47.68 |
17.61 |
-30.08 |
65.29 |
98.24% |
n/a |
n/a |
Season Analysis
| Record
| Probability
| Ceiling
| Floor
|
| 4-8 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
100.00% |
| 5-7 |
0.14% |
0.00% |
100.00% |
| 6-6 |
1.94% |
0.14% |
99.86% |
| 7-5 |
11.53% |
2.08% |
97.92% |
| 8-4 |
30.65% |
13.61% |
86.39% |
| 9-3 |
38.20% |
44.25% |
55.75% |
| 10-2 |
17.54% |
82.46% |
17.54% |
Expected Wins Analysis
| Record
| Probability
|
| 3-9 |
0.01% |
| 4-8 |
0.09% |
| 5-7 |
0.71% |
| 6-6 |
3.42% |
| 7-5 |
10.90% |
| 8-4 |
21.40% |
| 9-3 |
28.11% |
| 10-2 |
22.71% |
| 11-1 |
10.61% |
| 12-0 |
2.04% |