BizarroMath™ Sports Analysis System |
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Last Updated: 02:00 on Monday, January 15, 2024
Toledo 2023 Season Summary
National Average Data
| Category
| 2022 Raw
| 2023 Raw
| 2023 Blended (Δ)
|
| Points Per Game (PPG) |
27.17 |
26.70 |
26.70 (+0.00) |
| Yards Per Game (YPG) |
386.24 |
379.93 |
379.93 (+0.00) |
| Yards Per Play (YPP) |
5.64 |
5.70 |
5.70 (+0.00) |
Toledo 2023 - Unit Statistics
Offense
| Category
| 2022 Raw
| 2022 Opp Adj'd (Δ)
| 2023 Raw
| 2023 Opp Adj'd (Δ)
| 2023 Blended (Δ)
|
|---|
| Points Scored per Game (PPG): |
31.67 |
26.65 (-5.02) |
30.50 |
25.46 (-5.04) |
25.46 (+0.00) |
| Yards Gained per Game (YPG): |
403.00 |
368.37 (-34.63) |
406.08 |
377.45 (-28.64) |
377.45 (+0.00) |
| Yards Gained per Play (YPP): |
5.67 |
5.05 (-0.62) |
6.67 |
6.21 (-0.46) |
6.21 (+0.00) |
Defense
| Category
| 2022 Raw
| 2022 Opp Adj'd (Δ)
| 2023 Raw
| 2023 Opp Adj'd (Δ)
| 2023 Blended (Δ)
|
|---|
| Points Yielded per Game (PPG): |
27.67 |
34.40 (+6.73) |
22.08 |
29.81 (+7.72) |
29.81 (+0.00) |
| Yards Yielded per Game (YPG): |
350.17 |
402.21 (+52.05) |
325.17 |
406.96 (+81.80) |
406.96 (+0.00) |
| Yards Yielded per Play (YPP): |
4.91 |
5.66 (+0.75) |
5.09 |
5.79 (+0.71) |
5.79 (+0.00) |
Intangibles
| Category
| Measure(s)
|
| Home Field Advantage
| +2.7 |
Schedule Analysis
| Date
| Opponent
| BizMa Points For
| BizMa Points Against
| BizMa Spread
| BizMa O/U
| BizMa Win %
| Real Outcome
| Team Record
|
| 2023-09-02 |
@Illinois |
28.65 |
34.43 |
+5.78 |
63.08 |
40.73% |
L 28-30 |
0-1 |
| 2023-09-09 |
Texas Southern |
Non-FBS Opponent |
W 71-3 |
1-1 |
| 2023-09-16 |
San José State |
28.05 |
31.41 |
+3.37 |
59.46 |
44.60% |
W 21-17 |
2-1 |
| 2023-09-23 |
Western Michigan |
44.23 |
24.97 |
-19.26 |
69.20 |
80.89% |
W 49-31 |
3-1 |
| 2023-09-30 |
Northern Illinois |
33.52 |
22.31 |
-11.21 |
55.82 |
67.98% |
W 35-33 |
4-1 |
| 2023-10-07 |
@UMass |
43.28 |
26.63 |
-16.65 |
69.91 |
76.70% |
W 41-24 |
5-1 |
| 2023-10-14 |
@Ball State |
30.17 |
12.91 |
-17.26 |
43.08 |
77.69% |
W 13-6 |
6-1 |
| 2023-10-21 |
@Miami (OH) |
21.06 |
21.65 |
+0.59 |
42.70 |
49.06% |
W 21-17 |
7-1 |
| 2023-10-31 |
Buffalo |
34.97 |
16.29 |
-18.68 |
51.26 |
79.96% |
W 31-13 |
8-1 |
| 2023-11-09 |
Eastern Michigan |
34.21 |
11.25 |
-22.96 |
45.46 |
86.82% |
W 49-23 |
9-1 |
| 2023-11-15 |
@Bowling Green |
28.24 |
25.59 |
-2.65 |
53.83 |
54.25% |
W 32-31 |
10-1 |
| 2023-11-24 |
@Central Michigan |
36.16 |
21.88 |
-14.28 |
58.04 |
72.91% |
W 32-17 |
11-1 |
| 2023-12-02 |
Miami (OH) |
23.76 |
19.55 |
-4.21 |
43.30 |
56.75% |
L 14-23 |
11-2 |
| Postseason |
|---|
| 2023-12-30 |
@Wyoming |
22.68 |
29.20 |
+6.52 |
51.87 |
39.54% |
L 15-16 |
11-3 |
Season Analysis
| Record
| Probability
| Ceiling
| Floor
|
| 11-3 |
100.00% |
0.00% |
100.00% |
Expected Wins Analysis
| Record
| Probability
|
| 2-12 |
0.00% |
| 3-11 |
0.03% |
| 4-10 |
0.17% |
| 5-9 |
0.92% |
| 6-8 |
3.56% |
| 7-7 |
9.20% |
| 8-6 |
17.34% |
| 9-5 |
23.27% |
| 10-4 |
22.31% |
| 11-3 |
14.89% |
| 12-2 |
6.45% |
| 13-1 |
1.68% |
| 14-0 |
0.18% |